A week of elections, for better or for worse

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Hello and welcome to the working week,

It’s election time. From Toronto to Berlin, from Moscow to Reykjavík, not to mention Douglas on the Isle of Man, the next seven days will be peppered with national plebiscites. Whether you think it’s a good week for democracy may depend on where you live – I’m thinking of this particular good analysis of Russia’s crackdown on dissidents – as well as your political orientation.

There is nothing certain about elections – like Canada’s Justin Trudeau can find out after organizing an instant poll in an attempt to secure a parliamentary majority for her liberal party – but we know one thing about the federal elections in Germany next Sunday: it will be the end of the Angela Merkel era. This is important for the Germans, but it will also affect neighboring nations, because this piece from our Paris office manager, explains Victor Mallet.

Seems like a good time to mention Europe Express, the FT’s daily bulletin on politics on the continent. You can subscribe to receive it by click here. You can also register your vote – for or against – on The Week Ahead by emailing me at [email protected].

The Democratic nomination is not a requirement for world leaders gathered at the UN headquarters in New York for the opening day of the general assembly on Tuesday. But they will have a lot to discuss given the recent exodus of allied forces from Afghanistan and tensions between the West and China.

A Covid-19 jab is also not, according to UN Secretary General António Guterres. However, be prepared for more vaccine news as booster shots roll out across the United States and many British schoolchildren receive their first doses.

Companies

Adobe is expected to show continued strong revenue growth in third quarter results on Tuesday. Like my colleague Chris Nuttall noted, the company has been one of the least publicized beneficiaries of pandemic lockdowns. As the coronavirus continues to disrupt businesses and Zoom meetings become de rigueur, analysts are predicting boom times for Adobe’s document and electronic signature services. The Street expects revenue of $ 3.89 billion for the quarter and earnings per share of $ 3.01.

Another better-recognized beneficiary of the pandemic is FedEx, which releases first quarter figures on Tuesday. Its ground unit, which generates around 30% of revenue, may have been hit by rising labor costs, but analysts expect analysts to report healthy growth thanks to the e-commerce boom. In progress.

Economic data

Interest rates will be a theme for Economic Week with central bank committee meetings in Tokyo, London and Stockholm as well as other locations to decide whether to tighten monetary policy. The European Central Bank is already considering raising rates, according to its internal modeling. The UK jobs and inflation data last week shifted the debate at the Bank of England from when to tighten monetary policy to how much it should be tightened. this piece my colleague Chris Giles explains.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

On Monday

  • Germany, monthly producer price index

  • Sweden, Riksbank monetary policy meeting

  • UK Real Estate Site Rightmove Monthly Home Price Index

  • United States, Wells Fargo Monthly Housing Market Index

Tuesday

  • Brazil, Banco Central do Brasil monetary policy meeting

  • Japan, Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting

  • OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook, outlining near-term prospects for the global economy

  • South Africa, South African Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Meeting

  • United Kingdom, monthly data on net public sector borrowing from the Office for National Statistics

  • United States, current account balance

  • United States, monthly residential construction data from the Department of Commerce

  • Trading of shares in Universal music group, from Vivendi, begins

  • Results: Adobe systems T3, FedEx Q1, Kingfisher H1

Wednesday

  • EU and euro area consumer confidence figures

  • United States, data on sales of existing homes

  • Monetary policy meeting between the United States and the Federal Reserve

  • Results: General Mills Q1, OVS H1

Thursday

  • Argentina, quarterly unemployment figures

  • Canada, retail sales figures

  • Monetary policy meeting of the EU and the European Central Bank

  • EU, France, Germany, United Kingdom, United States: data from the IHS Markit index of purchasing managers

  • Norway, monetary policy meeting

  • Switzerland, monetary policy meeting

  • Taiwan, Benchmark interest rate

  • Monetary policy meeting in UK and Bank of England

  • United States, first jobless claims

  • Results: Wholesale Costco T4, Investec commercial update, Nike T1

Friday

  • Brazil, inflation data

  • Germany, monthly index of business confidence from the Ifo Institute

  • Japan, consumer price index

  • Japan, manufacturing and services PMI

  • UK and GfK consumer confidence figures

  • Vietnam, monthly inflation data

  • OECD launches Economic and Financial Outlook 2021

Global events

Finally, here’s a look at other events and milestones this week.

On Monday

  • Austria, 65th International Atomic Energy Agency conference kicks off in Vienna

  • Canada, voting in early general election called by Justin Trudeau in August

  • Beginning of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot or Feast of Tabernacles

  • Russia, Duma election results announced

  • United Kingdom, Transport for London opens Northern Line extension, the first major metro extension of this century

  • United States, rollout of Covid vaccine booster dose begins

Tuesday

  • Italy, start of Milan Fashion Week

  • United Kingdom, Chelsea Flower Show begins at Royal Hospital Chelsea, London

  • United States, opening day of the United Nations General Assembly in New York

Wednesday

  • UK summer exhibition opens at Royal Academy of Arts in London

  • UK vaccination for 12-15 year olds begins

Thursday

  • United Kingdom, elections for the 24 members of the House of Keys on the Isle of Man

  • In the United States, President Joe Biden holds a summit of leaders of the “Quad” countries – Australia, India and Japan – to discuss the problems of the Indo-Pacific region

Friday

  • The 59th New York Film Festival in the United States begins

  • 43rd Ryder Cup USA Golf Tournament begins at Whistling Straits, Wisconsin

Saturday

  • Iceland, general elections

  • United Kingdom, start of annual Labor Party conference in Brighton

Sunday

  • Germany, Bundestag elections and Angela Merkel, Chancellor of the country since 2005, resigns

  • USA, 74th Annual Tony Awards for Outstanding Broadway Theatrical Productions

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